Consumer Confidence Crashes

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index saw a sharp decline in March, dropping 7.2 points to 92.9, signaling growing unease among Americans. This mirrors the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey, which fell by 12% since February. A key concern is the Expectations Index, which measures short-term outlooks on income, business, and labor market conditions. It plunged 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years and well below the 80-point recession threshold. Senior economist Stephanie Guichard noted that consumer confidence has now fallen for four consecutive months, with expectations for future employment and business conditions reaching new lows. While views on the current labor market improved slightly, optimism about future income has largely disappeared.

The decline in confidence was most pronounced among consumers over 55 and those aged 35-55, while younger consumers under 35 showed a slight increase in optimism about current conditions. Confidence also dropped across most income groups, except for households earning over $125,000 annually. Consumers’ expectations for the stock market turned negative for the first time since late 2023, with more people anticipating a decline in stock prices. Inflation concerns remain high, with 12-month expectations rising to 6.2% as fears over rising prices and tariffs persist. Purchasing plans for homes and cars declined, though interest in big-ticket items like appliances and electronics saw a slight uptick, possibly due to concerns over future price hikes.Consumer Confidence Crashes: Recession Fears Grow